Polymarket is seeking roughly $1 billion of new capital at a valuation above $20 billion, putting the prediction-market operator on course to more than double its October 2025 valuation of $9 billion. The talks follow an April financing at $15 billion that brought in D.E. Shaw and G Squared. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, contributed $600 million to that round, while Founders Fund is among Polymarket’s earlier investors.
One exchange-traded fund gives UAE investors a small piece of that private-market valuation story. The KraneShares Artificial Intelligence and Technology Public and Private ETF, AGIX, is cross-listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and holds preferred shares in Polymarket. AGIX began trading on ADX in April, bringing private technology exposure into a locally traded U.S.-domiciled ETF.
Polymarket Makes Headway
Founder Shayne Coplan launched Polymarket in 2020, building a market where contract prices represent traders’ implied probabilities for real-world events. Donald Trump Jr. joined the company’s advisory board in 2025 after an investment by 1789 Capital. Bloomberg reported that annualized revenue has since tripled to more than $1.2 billion following the opening of Polymarket’s U.S. platform.
Competition remains intense. Kalshi reached a $22 billion valuation after raising $1 billion in May and generated roughly three times Polymarket’s July trading volume, according to Dune Analytics data cited by Bloomberg. Polymarket also faces CFTC scrutiny over promotional activity, leaving regulation and market integrity alongside revenue growth in the valuation discussion.
What Polymarket Traders Are Pricing
The markets themselves show why the platform has attracted attention beyond sports betting. As of August 5, Polymarket prices implied roughly a 54% probability of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September, compared with 42% for no change. Traders assigned about an 85% probability of zero Fed cuts during 2026, a 22% probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, and a 55% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31. Those probabilities move continuously as contracts trade and should be read as market prices rather than economic forecasts.
AGIX Gives ETF Investors a Polymarket Stake
AGIX held 14,286 Polymarket Series B preferred shares worth $2.0 million, equal to 0.42% of net assets, as of July 27. The ETF had $470.9 million in total assets and a 0.99% annual expense ratio. Its entire private and pre-IPO sleeve was valued at $50.68 million, representing 10.76% of the portfolio.
AGIX Private and Pre-IPO Exposure
*KraneShares still reports a SpaceX SPV and SpaceX Class A pre-IPO shares within its private-holdings schedule even though SpaceX is now publicly traded.
From SpaceX to Anthropic
AGIX has already demonstrated how its private sleeve can move into public markets. The fund held SpaceX before the company’s June IPO, which priced at $135 a share and began Nasdaq trading under SPCX on June 12.
Anthropic could provide the next test. The Claude developer represented 2.74% of AGIX as of July 27 and confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO on June 1. Bloomberg has reported that Anthropic is considering a listing as early as October 2026, placing a possible debut in the fourth quarter, although timing remains dependent on market conditions.
For UAE investors, that private-to-public pipeline is the more distinctive AGIX story. Polymarket is only 0.42% of the portfolio, but it sits beside Anthropic and legacy SpaceX positions in an ETF that allows ADX investors to gain exposure to selected companies before, and sometimes through, their transition onto public exchanges.
