UAE equity markets have had a turbulent 2026. A sharp geopolitical shock in late February triggered severe selling across both Dubai (DFM) and Abu Dhabi (ADX), briefly pushing the DFM General Index down to lows near 5,184 from a 52-week high of 6,785, a drawdown exceeding 23%. UAE authorities temporarily implemented lower circuit-breaker limits to prevent a freefall, and the real estate sector saw the DFM Real Estate Index crash by 18.1% in just 10 days.
Yet as the dust settled, a compelling story emerged from corporate boardrooms: Q1 2026 earnings were, in many cases, record-breaking. The disconnect between market price action and underlying fundamentals was stark. The ADX General Index has since partially recovered, trading at approximately 9,678 points as of May 15, 2026, broadly flat year-on-year (0.24%). For long-term investors, the earnings picture paints a more optimistic view than the indices alone would suggest.
Macro Context: IMF Downgrades UAE Growth Forecast
The corporate earnings picture is not without a macroeconomic caveat. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised the UAE’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast sharply downward from 5.0% (its October 2025 projection) to 3.1%, a reduction of 1.9 percentage points. The revision reflects the economic consequences of the regional conflict, including disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising commodity price pressures. The broader Middle East and North Africa region saw its 2026 growth forecast cut by 2.8 percentage points to 1.1%, with some Gulf neighbours facing outright contractions.
The UAE’s relative resilience, still projecting positive growth against a backdrop of regional contraction, reflects the country’s diversified economic base. Non-hydrocarbon sectors, including tourism, financial services, real estate, and logistics, continued to perform. The Q1 2026 earnings season broadly validates this: the companies reporting record or near-record results span every sector, not just oil-linked names.
Q2 2026 Outlook
Q1 results capture performance through March 31 before the full weight of the conflict’s economic impact could settle into corporate books. The geopolitical shock erupted in late February, meaning companies had only a matter of weeks within the quarter to absorb any disruption. Most management teams reported that operations remained largely intact through Q1, with supply chains resilient and demand broadly holding.
Q2 2026, by contrast, will be the first full quarter to reflect the conflict’s true impact on earnings. Key questions for investors heading into the next reporting cycle include whether logistics revenues held up despite regional shipping disruptions; whether real estate sales pipelines remained active or slowed; and whether banking credit quality deteriorated under a higher-risk environment. AD Ports maintained full-year guidance, and Parkin’s decision to hold guidance under review is an early signal of the divergence likely to emerge across sectors in Q2.
Several companies have offered early-stage forward indicators. ADCB reaffirmed guidance for 20% annual profit growth for 2026, maintaining confidence in loan book quality and fee income momentum. AD Ports Group maintained its full-year 2026 guidance, citing its strategy of elevating Fujairah and Khorfakkan as alternative gateways as a direct operational response to regional disruption. Emaar’s revenue backlog of AED 163.4 billion provides earnings visibility well beyond Q2. Fertiglobe’s Grow 2030 strategy (43% complete) remains a medium-term anchor. By contrast, Parkin noted that March was impacted by geopolitical uncertainty and a longer Eid holiday, and has kept its full-year revenue guidance under review pending Q2 results a more cautious posture that reflects genuine demand uncertainty in discretionary spending.
For investors and analysts, Q2 2026 results due across July and August will be the clearest test of whether the exceptional Q1 2026 earnings represent a sustainable earnings regime or a pre-shock high-water mark. The trajectory of the regional conflict, oil market dynamics, and the pace of any macroeconomic stabilisation will all shape the picture. Until then, the Q1 numbers stand as a compelling case that UAE corporate fundamentals entered this turbulent period from a position of unusual strength.
Sector-by-Sector Earnings Breakdown
Sector: Industrials & Chemicals
Fertiglobe (ADX: FERTIGLB) Net profit 98% YoY to $145M on revenue of $915M (32%) and EBITDA of $342M (31%). Driven by tight nitrogen supply, peak spring demand, and the Egyptian facility operating above 105%. A structural boost: UAE asset tax cut from 25% to 15-20% effective Jan 2026. UAE urea operating rates hit 96% (vs 87% prior year).
Sector: Holding Companies
IHC (ADX: IHC) Strongest quarter in seven years. Revenue 33% to AED 31.4B; net profit 98.5% to AED 8.2B. Total assets AED 445.3B, cash AED 74.7B. Plans to deploy $8B over six months across mining, energy, and financial services.
Alpha Dhabi (ADX: ALPHADHABI) Revenue 8% to AED 18.8B; net profit 81% to AED 3.8B, driven by margin expansion across all divisions. Total assets AED 225.8B. Annual dividend policy: AED 2B, growing 5%/year from 2025.
Alpha Dhabi Holding (81% Net Profit)
Alpha Dhabi Holding (ADX: ALPHADHABI), 58%-owned by IHC, reported revenue of AED 18.8 billion, up 8% year-on-year, while net profit surged 81% to AED 3.8 billion ($1 billion). The strong profit growth reflected margin expansion across real estate, industrial, construction, and services divisions.
Total assets reached AED 225.8 billion. Alpha Dhabi also maintains a three-year dividend policy of AED 2 billion annually, growing 5% per year from 2025.
Sector: Consumers
Americana Restaurants Revenue 13.3% to $649.7M; EBITDA 31.9% to $160.5M on 280bps margin expansion. Footprint reached 2,741 restaurants across 12 markets. Zero net leverage. Targeting 120-130 net new stores in FY2026.
Sector: Utilities
DEWA (DFM: DEWA) Best-ever quarter. Revenue AED 6.45B; net profit 90% to AED 940M. Clean energy is now 18.5% of generation. New Hassyan SWRO plant added 60 MIGD, lifting total desalination capacity to 555 MIGD.
Empower (DFM: EMPOWER) Revenue 16.8% to AED 631M; net profit 44% to AED 208M. Signed 28 new contracts, adding 35,662 refrigeration tons.
Sector: Real Estate
Emaar Properties (DFM: EMAAR) Revenue 23% to AED 12.4B; EBITDA 34%; net income 38% to AED 6.4B. Revenue backlog hit a record AED 163.4B (29%), providing strong multi-year visibility. Subsidiary Emaar Development posted even sharper numbers: revenue 36%, net profit 49%.
Sector: Banking
ADCB (ADX: ADCB) 19th consecutive quarter of profit growth. Net profit 37% to AED 3.36B. Cost-to-income ratio at record low of 25.6%; total assets 19% to AED 809B. Reaffirmed 20% profit growth guidance for FY2026.
RAK Bank (DFM: RAKBANK) Best-ever quarter. Net profit 43% to AED 1B; ROCE surged to 29.9% from 22.4%. Core operating income 40% YoY, even excluding a one-off AED 473M gain from the sale of its merchant acquiring business.
Sector: Logistics & Infrastructure
AD Ports Group (ADX: ADPORTS) Best-ever quarterly profit. Revenue 25% to AED 5.75B (entirely organic); net profit 41% to AED 653M. Container volumes 20% to 871K TEUs. Secured a 30-year Aqaba port concession and a new Douala terminal. Full-year guidance maintained.
Parkin (DFM: PARKIN) Revenue 41% to AED 384M; net profit 36% to AED 185M; EBITDA margin 60%. Portfolio grew 23% to 258K spaces. Seasonal card sales 129% YoY. Full-year guidance under review pending Q2.
UAE ETF exposure, GCC-listed vehicles
Chimera FTSE
Chimera FTSE ADX 15 ETF (CHADX15), listed on the ADX. For CHADX15 top holdings, the FTSE ADX 15 index tracks the 15 largest and most liquid companies on ADX. These are well-established: FAB, E &, ADNOC Gas, ADCB, ADIB, TAQA, Aldar, ADNOC Drilling, etc.
iShares UAE ETF
The iShares UAE ETF (NASDAQ: UAE) has Emaar, ADCB, and DEWA among its top 11 holdings, all three of which posted record or near-record quarters. Combined, those three represent 20% of the fund's weight.
The iShares UAE ETF delivered a total return of 23% over the past year, including dividends, suggesting markets have already partially priced in the earnings strength. The geopolitical dip earlier in 2026 was a buying opportunity in hindsight.
Other GCC-origin ETFs with UAE exposure
Bottom Line: Earnings Are Ahead of Prices
The Q1 2026 reporting season has reinforced one message: UAE corporates across chemicals, utilities, banking, real estate, logistics, holding companies, and consumer sectors are generating profits at levels not seen before.
Fertiglobe, DEWA, ADCB, IHC, AD Ports, and Parkin all posted record or near-record quarterly figures, grounded in operational execution, margin expansion, and structural tailwinds rather than temporary windfalls.
The gap between strong earnings and subdued equity index performance reflects an elevated geopolitical risk premium rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Several management teams reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance despite the backdrop, signaling confidence in the durability of demand.
